Forecasts of the future number of trade mark registrations help intellectual property offices to plan, identifying what resources will be needed. Faced with a steep increase in trade mark applications in recent years, the UK Intellectual Property Office has sought to improve their trade mark forecasting models. This research refines the modelling, primarily by enhancing the data underpinning the models and then testing several models that use the new variables created. Previous modelling has relied on the register records. For this study, owners as recorded in the register have then been categorised (as businesses, individuals, foreign and other organisation types) and then linked to firm-level data held in company databases. Further first-time and repeat filers have been identified; the data also distinguishes between new applications for trade marks and the renewal of existing trade marks. From the underlying microdata, panels aggregating by types of filers have been produced, and, a set of models tested for their predictive strength. The preferred model predicts that during 2017 almost 67,000 new trade marks will be registered and there will be around 52,000 renewals. New registrations are found to be driven by past trade marking activity, and recent GDP and investment growth. For the renewals modelling, an additional key driver is the number of trade marks that are due for renewal. The report also considers the impact on trade marking of the introduction of the EU trade mark and some other more recent policies.

UK Trade Mark Demand: An Analysis for the Intellectual Property Office